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Healthcare Trends Report 2023 - Summary
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Executive Summary 

Our first Annual Trend Report is a two-fold research endeavor to explain the interdependency of why humans are the cornerstone and driving force behind the products, services, experiences and strategies we create to solve customer needs and desires for the healthcare sector. Moreover, it is the prerogative and opportunity of CMS leadership, technologists, and policymakers alike to proactively plan and use prospective hindsight to strategize how the future might unfold and what measures could be taken to protect beneficiaries and the welfare of CMS. This report is a tool to test and plan those assumptions with real-time challenges and healthcare market changes.  

Firstly, to measure and track the CCSQ community's overall Human-Centered Design (HCD) experiences and maturity by practicing primary research and engaging with HCD Center of Excellence (HCD CoE) services. The HCD Center of Excellence (HCD CoE) surveyed the CCSQ community to access and understand supportive leadership, recruitment, resources, training and the use of HCD methods in the organization's application towards successful research goals that deliver on building customer trust. The findings provide encouragement and direction for opportunities for improvement to accelerate CCSQ’s HCD muscle.  

The second component of the report is secondary research, an interpretative exercise; a series of curated interconnected healthcare topics that convey the current complexity of multiple factors, market forces, societal shifts, consumer demand, the human condition and historical events that impact contemporary life; aging, insurance, healthcare workers, COVID impact, home care, American Rescue Plan Act and technology. We have analyzed these trends creating a synopsis; visioning future predictions and directional opportunities that ultimately drives and challenges the six CMS strategic pillars; advance equity, expand access, engage partners, drive innovation, protect programs and foster excellence.   

Trends Summary 

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an opportunity to shift up to $265 billion worth of care services for Medicare beneficiaries from traditional facilities to the home without reducing quality or access. Care at Home could improve the quality of care and patient experience, reduce preventable adverse health events, and offer services such as primary care, outpatient-specialist consults, emergency-department and urgent care, hospice, and outpatient mental and behavioral health visits. CMS stakeholders could benefit, although the types of benefits and costs would vary. The focus should be on healthy aging and recognizing the potential for many to contribute, with six shifts including investing in the promotion of healthy aging, improving measurements of health and data, and scaling interventions. Governments can consider implementing four specific shifts to rebuild central public health workforces and support the rebuilding of local public health and healthcare delivery workforces. Insurer participation and new product offerings have accelerated, with managed-care plans growing steadily and consumer cost burdens reduced. Healthcare profit pools are expected to grow, with some segments expecting higher growth than others. However, increased labor costs and administrative expenses will reduce payer EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization), with providers pushing for reimbursement rate increases resulting in incremental rate increases for the commercial segment. 

Trends Predictions & Opportunities 

There is no shortage of opportunities where CMS technologists, policymakers and leadership could and should strategically plan new policies, drive person-centered care, deliver innovation with private-sector partners and continue the advancement of healthcare equity and coverage while capitalizing on short-term market growth to weather industry uncertainties. 

Care@Home: CMS has an opportunity to promote and incentivize care at home models and virtual care technologies to shift Medicare fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries' care from traditional facilities to their homes. This could lead to improved quality of care, better patient experiences, technology ventures and potentially reduce preventable adverse health events. CMS could consider adjusting its payment models to encourage more providers to adopt care at home models and ensure that these models meet quality and safety standards. 

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/from-facility-to-home-how-healthcare-could-shift-by-2025 

Rethink Aging: As the number of older adults continues to grow, CMS can play a vital role in promoting healthy aging and recognizing the potential for older adults to contribute to society. CMS could consider promoting preventive care and early intervention programs that encourage older adults to stay active and engaged. CMS could also explore opportunities to collaborate with other agencies and organizations to develop innovative approaches to address the challenges of an aging population. 

https://www.mckinsey.com/mhi/our-insights/living-longer-in-better-health-six-shifts-needed-for-healthy-aging 

Future of Healthcare Workers: CMS can work with governments to address healthcare workforce shortages and implement strategies that promote the development and retention of healthcare workers. This could include investing in education and training programs, optimizing organizational structures, leveraging technology and data, and fostering a culture of innovation and inclusion. CMS could also encourage public health systems to plan and implement infrastructure that enables them to expand their workforces during crises. 

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/care-for-the-caretakers-building-the-global-public-health-workforce 

New Directions in US Healthcare Insurance: CMS could leverage the insights provided by this report to inform its policymaking and regulatory efforts. For example, CMS could consider adjusting its payment models to encourage more insurers to offer managed care plans, which have grown steadily since 2014. CMS could also consider ways to increase consumer access to insurers and plans in their home counties, potentially by encouraging more insurers to participate in the marketplaces. 

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/insights-into-the-2022-individual-health-insurance-market 

Future US Healthcare Visions 2023 CMS could use the insights provided by this report to prepare for the future and address challenges such as rising healthcare costs and labor shortages. CMS could consider developing policies and programs that encourage providers to adopt new technologies and approaches that can improve efficiency and reduce costs. CMS could also work with payers to ensure that reimbursement rates are sufficient to support the delivery of high-quality care. 

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/what-to-expect-in-us-healthcare-in-2023-and-beyond 



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